Britain's economic recovery will be slower than the government there believes and consumer spending will not recover to its pre-recession peak until 2015, a leading think-tank said this morning.

The prognosis from the National Institute for Economic and Social Research will be more closely scrutinised than usual following the departure of its head, Martin Weale, to the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee earlier this month.

Weale's appointment as one of the central bank's "external" rate-setters was announced on July 5, a week after work on the latest forecasting round began. Weale will cast his first vote on the monetary policy committee next week.

Data last week showed Britain's economy grew by a surprisingly robust 1.1 pc in the second quarter, but the think-tank said public spending cuts were likely to create headwinds in the second half of the year.

It predicted the economy would grow by 1.2 pc over 2010 as a whole, rising to 1.7 pc in 2011 and 2.2 pc in 2012.

The government is banking on a faster rebound and has pencilled in growth of 2.3 pc next year and 2.8 pc in 2012.

"Our view is that the second half of the year will be quite weak," said Simon Kirby, a research fellow at the institute. "Government spending will be detracting from growth rather than adding to it as it has been in recent quarters."

Kirby said bank lending constraints and fiscal tightening across much of Europe provided downside risks and a quarter or two of contraction -- either this year or next -- could not be ruled out. But he said the weak recovery was unlikely to prevent inflation remaining above the Bank of England's 2 pc until 2012, largely because of the government's decision to raise value added sales tax from next January. "Consumer price inflation will average 3 pc this year and 2.7 pc in 2011," he said. "The increase in the standard rate of VAT at the start of next year will keep the rate of inflation above target through next year." The Bank of England will publish updated quarterly forecasts on August 11 and it too is likely to revise up its inflation projections to take account of the VAT rise. NIESR welcomed the scale of the government's plans to reduce the budget deficit but questioned the wisdom of tightening fiscal policy this year rather than waiting till next. It also questioned whether the burden in last month's austerity budget should have fallen so heavily on spending cuts and criticised the government for ring-fencing areas such as health. "The idea of a Greek style crisis in the UK was always very unlikely," said researcher Ray Barrell. "The 'emergency' budget was more about political theatre than economic necessity," he added.